QuantumTitan · MT5 XAUUSD H1… AI Review | QuantTester
QuantumTitan · MT5 XAUUSD H1: return -27.6%, DD 56.75%, PF 0.88, 431 trades. Read the review.
Strategy Safety Grade: C- (28 / 100) · High Risk Alert
Trading risk analysis result
A 431-trade XAUUSD H1 backtest with 99% history quality that despite an 80% win rate produced a -27.58% return, 0.88 profit factor, and 56.75% maximum drawdown, with losses concentrated in a minority of large adverse exits and no Demo/Real forward record.
Data transparency & Environment
- MT4/MT5: MT5
- Symbol: XAUUSD
- Timeframe: H1
- Net profit: $-2,757.59
- Return: -27.6%
- Max drawdown: 56.75%
- Total Trades: 431
- Profit Factor (PF): 0.88
Critical Algorithmic Vulnerabilities
- Drawdown of 56.75% is large relative to a -27.58% net return and exceeds the return shortfall, indicating weak risk-adjusted performance.
- Profit factor of 0.88 with an 80.05% win rate implies average losses materially exceed average wins; several exits exceed -300 and one reaches -635.96.
- Profit concentration: the top 22 winners (top 5%) supply 29.13% of gross profit; excluding them, the remaining trades have a 0.62 profit factor and -8671.89 net result.
- Balance fell from a peak of about 15,122.88 to 6,611.25 by 2026-09-10, a decline of roughly 56% from peak, matching the reported 56.75% maximum drawdown.
- Position size ranges up to 0.30 lots and down to 0.13; because exact entry timing is not paired in the export, simultaneous or overlapping exposure cannot be ruled out.
Score Breakdown Details
- Verified: net loss of -2757.59 on a 10000 base (-27.58%) after 431 closed trades over 2025-01-03 to 2026-10-09 (644 days).
- Verified: profit factor 0.88 and maximum drawdown 56.75%, with the balance declining from a peak near 15,122.88 to 9,885.55 (about a 34.6% decline from peak) and later to as low as 6,611.25.
- Verified: win rate 80.05% but small average wins; several single exits between -200 and -635 offset many small winners, indicating a skewed payoff profile.
- Verified: top 5% of trades (22 trades) contributed 29.13% of gross profit, and excluding them the remaining book ran a 0.62 profit factor, so profitability depends on a small subset of trades.
- Verified: position size varies roughly 0.13 to 0.30 lots and falls during drawdown sequences, consistent with balance-scaled sizing rather than a fixed lot; no explicit martingale rule is provided.
- Pending: no Demo or Real forward record supplied; backtest completion does not validate live execution.
Recommended Next Actions
- Re-export with paired entry tickets and open timestamps to verify holding periods, direction, and whether any positions overlapped.
- Run a controlled forward test on the same symbol and period settings to compare live execution against the backtest.
- Compute cost sensitivity on the small-winning-trade profile, since a large share of winners are below 30 per trade.
- Review the largest adverse exits (e.g., -635.96, -612.72, -580) to determine whether stop placement or sizing drove the drawdown.
- Confirm commission and swap treatment in a follow-up MT5 report export.
Q&A About This Report (Quant Due Diligence)
How can the strategy win 80% of trades and still lose money?
The 431 closed trades produced a 0.88 profit factor and a -2757.59 net loss. With an 80.05% win rate, many winners are small, while a minority of adverse exits are much larger, such as -635.96, -612.72, and -580. The payoff asymmetry, not the win rate, determined the negative return.
What does the 56.75% maximum drawdown mean for this backtest?
The reported maximum drawdown is 56.75%. The balance rose to about 15,122.88 and later reached 6,611.25, a decline of roughly 56% from peak, so the drawdown is the dominant risk statistic relative to the -27.58% net return.
Is the performance dependent on a few trades?
The top 22 winners (top 5% by count) contributed 29.13% of gross profit. Excluding them, the remaining trades show a 0.62 profit factor and -8671.89 net result, so profitability is concentrated in a small subset of trades.
Is the test quality sufficient to trust the 99% history quality value?
History Quality is reported at 99% with 10,474 bars and 2,494,087 ticks for XAUUSD H1, and no tester warnings are shown. That supports data completeness for the backtest, but it does not validate live execution, which requires a forward record.
How is QuantTester different from asking a general-purpose AI assistant myself?
QuantTester parses MT4/MT5 reports into structured metrics and trade records before AI review. Supported calculations can be checked against the original export, guaranteeing consistent audit facts.
Which broker is recommended for trading and running MT4/MT5 strategies?
For algorithmic trading, EA execution and reliable backtesting, we strongly recommend IC Markets (Raw Spread Account) with 0.0 pip spreads.