Account #90057420 · MT4/MT5 Real AI Review | QuantTester
Account #90057420 · MT4/MT5 : return -23.2%, DD 28.88%, PF 0.62, 223 trades. Read the review.
Strategy Safety Grade: C+ (42 / 100) · Caution Advised
Trading risk analysis result
This is a real-account MT4/MT5 statement covering 223 closed trades from 2026-06-30 to 2026-10-02 with a -23.22% return, 28.88% max drawdown, 0.62 profit factor, and 64.57% win rate; the losing outcome is driven by concentrated large stop-style losses, and the evidence is limited to a single real-money record with unverified contextual details.
Data transparency & Environment
- MT4/MT5: MT4/MT5
- Symbol:
- Timeframe:
- Net profit: $-990.21
- Return: -23.2%
- Max drawdown: 28.88%
- Total Trades: 223
- Profit Factor (PF): 0.62
Critical Algorithmic Vulnerabilities
- Negative expectancy: PF 0.62 with -23.22% return indicates the system loses money over the sampled 93.7 days.
- Risk asymmetry: 64.57% win rate but repeated losses in the -70 to -114 range (e.g., -114.44, -111.84, -111.60, -108.15) dominate the loss side.
- Profit concentration: top 1% of trades contribute 13.94% of gross profit and top 5% contribute 41.15%; removing the top 5% leaves PF 0.36 and net -1642.64, meaning the strategy lacks a broad profitable edge.
- Drawdown: 28.88% maximum drawdown against a 4263.78 capital base is materially large for the observed return profile.
- Withdrawals of 3273.57 relative to deposits of 4263.78 reduce the working capital available for recovery, increasing relative risk on any remaining balance.
- Unverified context: symbol, timeframe, spread/slippage assumption, and TP/SL configuration are not supplied, so the negative result cannot be attributed to a specific market or execution condition.
Score Breakdown Details
- Verified negative: -23.22% return on a capital base of 4263.78, with net profit -990.21, is a losing real-account outcome.
- Verified negative: maximum drawdown of 28.88% is a substantial peak-to-trough decline relative to the account size.
- Verified negative: profit factor of 0.62 means gross losses exceed gross profits; the strategy is not profitable over the sample.
- Verified negative: 64.57% win rate combined with PF 0.62 demonstrates negative risk asymmetry — many small wins offset by fewer, much larger losses; large losing rows include -114.44, -111.84, -111.60, -108.15, and repeated -90-level exits.
- Verified concentration: computed stats show the top 1% of trades (3 trades) account for 13.94% of gross profit; removing them drops remaining PF to 0.53 with remaining net profit -1211.31. The top 5% (12 trades) account for 41.15% of gross profit; removing them drops remaining PF to 0.36 and remaining net profit -1642.64 — profit is highly concentrated and the losing core is broad-based.
- Verified: withdrawals of 3273.57 against deposits of 4263.78 mean the account returned a large portion of capital to the owner, but the net traded result remains negative.
- Sample is 93.7 days with 223 closed trades — a moderate sample, not long enough to establish regime robustness.
- Pending: forward Demo/Real validation beyond this single statement is absent.
- No tester or mismatch warnings are present; no hard Stop Out or margin-call record is shown; no documented cost model (commission/swap) is supplied.
Recommended Next Actions
- Pair the multi-row clusters by entry ticket to determine whether large simultaneous losses are grid, scale-in, or independent orders, and quantify the resulting exposure.
- Run a loss attribution: rank the largest losing rows and check what fraction of total loss comes from same-timestamp clusters.
- Add symbol, timeframe, and stop/target configuration to the report context so the negative expectancy can be evaluated against a defined strategy.
- Reconcile the deposits/withdrawals (4263.78 / 3273.57) against net trading P/L to confirm the capital base used for the -23.22% and 28.88% figures.
- Include commission and swap in a follow-up statement extension if available, to test whether costs materially deepen the loss.
Q&A About This Report (Quant Due Diligence)
Why does a 64.57% win rate produce a -23.22% return?
Because the average win is much smaller than the average loss. The losing rows include -114.44, -111.84, -111.60, -108.15, -105.06, and several -90-level exits, while many winning rows are under 5 and a large number are under 2. The result is a profit factor of 0.62: gross losses exceed gross profits despite the majority of trades being winners.
How concentrated is the profit in this statement?
Very concentrated. The top 1% of trades (3 trades) account for 13.94% of gross profit, and removing them leaves remaining net profit of -1211.31 and remaining profit factor of 0.53. The top 5% (12 trades) account for 41.15% of gross profit; removing them leaves remaining net profit of -1642.64 and remaining profit factor of 0.36.
What does the 28.88% maximum drawdown mean in context?
It is the largest peak-to-trough equity decline recorded in the statement, measured against a capital base of 4263.78. It is a large decline for the observed return level (-23.22% net), and it occurred alongside 223 closed trades over a 93.7-day period from 2026-06-30 to 2026-10-02.
Can I tell whether the strategy uses grid or scale-in entries from this data?
No. Several rows share the same close timestamp and occasionally the same open timestamp (for example multiple rows at 2026.07.16 16:02:38 and at 2026.09.28 03:31:09 with varying sizes), but the parsed rows lack paired entry tickets and exit-type labels, so it cannot be confirmed whether these are grid, scale-in, or independent positions. That is a verification item, not an established characteristic.
How is QuantTester different from asking a general-purpose AI assistant myself?
QuantTester parses MT4/MT5 reports into structured metrics and trade records before AI review. Supported calculations can be checked against the original export, guaranteeing consistent audit facts.
Which broker is recommended for trading and running MT4/MT5 strategies?
For algorithmic trading, EA execution and reliable backtesting, we strongly recommend IC Markets (Raw Spread Account) with 0.0 pip spreads.